Tim Radford,
science editor
Monday April 28, 2003
The Guardian
You are more likely to die from influenza, malaria or even by
falling down the stairs at home. But that hasn't stopped the fear of
Sars escalating out of all proportion to the risks.
The new virus has killed around 260 people since last November.
"In that period of time, tens of thousands could be expected to have
died from flu and pneumonia," said Dr Peter Marsh, a social
psychologist and director of the social issues research centre at
Oxford.
"We are used to health scares, but this has taken on a whole new
scale," he said. The calculus of risk and fear is a puzzle for
public health authorities. Malaria, which kills a child every 30
seconds in Africa, is a real threat to half the world. Tuberculosis
is on the increase almost every where; poliomyelitis cases have
suddenly made a steep rise in India, even though the virus is almost
extinct.
In the last 20 years more than a score of newly identified
infections - from deadly Ebola fever to Lyme disease caught by ticks
carried by deer - have caused flurries of public alarm.
Humans tend to worry more about the unfamiliar and the
improbable. "It's foreign, it's eastern," said Dr Marsh. "The fact
is that 260 people have died. But for every Chinese person who has
died, 10 million have not. In an ordinary rational world, that
sounds like quite good odds, but not in this context. In this
country, every year, 1,500 people are killed falling down the
stairs. The implication would be that people should only be allowed
to build bungalows."
The virus has been described as a "time bomb". There has been
talk of it "mutating".
"Once you have that kind of imagery," said Dr Marsh, "then
rational consideration, rational decision-making really goes out of
the window."
Mary Burgess, a consultant clinical psychologist at University
College London hospital, saw a parallel with the early days of HIV.
"This [Sars] is a disease that is caught very specifically; you have
to have specific contact with people. But with phobias, people start
to avoid going on certain transport, or start avoiding certain
groups of people.
"They are trying to contain their anxiety, and it can become
phobic."
Anxiety tends to disappear with time. "You can inoculate yourself
against fear, if you sit down and work out what the risk is," Dr
Burgess said.