Depending on source, a vaccine for SARS could be here in only a few months, or a year, or it might take years. It might also never appear and, even if it does, it might never be widely used because it might do more harm than good. Whatever the time line, though, it will be expensive. Typically, say experts, vaccines are developed over years and cost around $US100 million -- but not all microbes can be treated with vaccines, meaning an endless research cycle, similar to work on the HIV/AIDS virus.

Vaccine a year away: According to Julie Gerberding, director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in the US -- the agency with the global lead on medical issues surrounding SARS -- a vaccine is "at least a year away."

Although media sources jumped on the "year" part of her statement, the CDC has consistently been less optimistic about the development time for a SARS vaccine. In Pakistan, one scientist said it would probably take 3-10 years to develop a SARS vaccine if it followed normal development procedures.

Vaccine only months away: On the other hand, according to Yuan Zhenghong, the director of a Shanghai-based national key laboratory under the Ministry of Health, both a vaccine and specialised treatment drugs will be available within the "coming few months." Yuan's projection was reported by the English version of state-run People's Daily, which used the announcement to reinforce early demands that officials stop hiding cases. "Officials who delay reporting of cases, cover up the extent of the epidemic or neglect their responsibilities in fighting the disease will be punished according to the law, said Xiao Donglou, deputy director of the Department of Disease Control with the Ministry of Health," the story says.

Local authorities have been granted exceptional powers as China musters itself to the fight. The People's Daily story says:

Meanwhile, governments at various levels are authorized by the law to take emergency measures to limit or stop markets, gatherings, performances or other major public activities, Xiao said.

They can also close down industries, businesses and classes, temporarily take over homes and vehicles, and isolate public water supplies polluted by infectious diseases.

It goes on to outline types of aid China seeks -- and is willing to accept -- from outsiders:

The Ministry of Civil Affairs, the Ministry of Health, the Red Cross Society of China (RCSC), and China Charity Federation will collect the donations.

Donations can include disinfectants, anti-SARS medicines and medical equipment as well as money, RCSC official Wang Baoming told China Daily Monday.

To make a donation, call the Ministry of Civil Affairs, (8610) 85203158/3159; the Ministry of Health, (8610) 68792177/2155; the RCSC, (8610) 65139999/5933; and the China Charity Federation, (8610) 66083260.

The story also contains perhaps the best one-liner about China's struggle with SARS to make print: A WHO expert suggested the Beijing Municipality further strengthen its surveillance system and enhance investigation of sporadic cases. "(The fight against SARS) is a war, we need little spies to find out where to shoot,'' he said.

WHO agrees with both estimates: The World Health Organisation is of what appears to be a dual mind about the timeline for developing a vaccine against SARS. According to an AP report, an unnamed senior official says that, while a vaccine could be developed within months, it could be two or three years before it was ready to use on humans.

But, possibly, never -- especially in practice: According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, there may never be a vaccine against SARS. "There is never, ever, a guarantee that you are going to develop a successful vaccine against a microbe. That is just a scientific fact of life," he said.

The problem is more complex than most realise, researchers are now saying, and vaccines, even when they do work, have negative side-effects that may inhibity their use in the general population.

According to Dr. James Campbell of the University of Maryland School of Medicine’s Center for Vaccine Development, "No vaccine is without adverse effects."

"It is a matter of balancing the public health need against that risk," he said.

Canada weighs in with call for funds, cooperation: Whatever the user risk, a vaccine is the only way the disease will be stopped, say scientists in Canada who are looking to form Government-subsidised collective research efforts.

"I don't think this disease can be eradicated in China and the developing countries in general by quarantine and isolation," says Dr. Frank Plummer of the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg. And without a vaccine, he says fatalities will continue since few developing countries have access to enough intensive care equipment and ventilators to handle SARS outbreaks. "In countries like China, India, Africa," says Dr. Plummer, "there isn't the kind of sophisticated intensive care that is required to get people through the most severe parts of SARS."

The Canadians have already stumped up an emergency $C500,000 fund for SARS research and scientists involved in the effort hope to get government regulators, pharmaceutical companies and scientists all working together rather than in competing, shilo-type laboratory efforts.

Some reckon that, with adequate funding, that sort of effort could develop a vaccine within a year -- but not that the development of a vaccine typically is a multi-year process costing around $C100 million.

Dr. Bhagirath Singh, scientific director of the federal Institute of Infection and Immunity, which supplied the $C500,000, said what was now in the pot is "just seed money," and that, "Unless there is money on the table it won't happen."

Following the China/ASEAN lead: The collaborative Canadian route is also striking a responsive chord with the ASEAN leaders gathered in Bangkok to hash out common strategies.

China has kick-started a collaborative research effort with a donation of about $US1 million and other nations are also likely to contribute.

But, according to ABC News' man-on-the-scene, the ASEAN initiative may be more about puff than powder.

In a transcript of a television news broadcast, correspondent Peter Lloyd said:

The Chinese are putting in around $2 million Australian.

There is about $1 million Australian coming from Thailand and slightly less from Cambodia so it doesn't really amount to very much.

It is I think more symbolic than substantial.

What the leaders here are saying is they want the WHO and CDC in Atlanta and governments of non-affected SARS countries to start putting their intellectual and financial efforts into trying to find a cure for SARS.

But not one cure fits all: Finally, some researchers believe that the SARS virus is mutating so rapidly and profoundly that any single vaccine will not address the problem effectively. Arthur Van Langerberg, a virologist at Canossa hospital in Hong Kong, told Italy's La Republica on 21 April that even if researchers found a vaccine in the next six months it was unlikely to be effective since the virus would probably have mutated in the meantime.

30-Apr-2003